%JPMorganChase (NYSE: $JPM) is forecasting that the global %Stablecoin market will reach $500 billion U.S. by 2028.
The outlook from JPMorgan is at the low end of current forecasts, with many %Cryptocurrency bulls calling for a $1 trillion U.S. to $2 trillion U.S. stablecoin market within the same timeframe.
In a note to clients, JPMorgan's lead crypto analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou outlined a more modest view of the future trajectory for stablecoins.
Panigirtzoglou argues that crypto-native demand, not payment adoption, remains the primary driver of stablecoin usage around the world.
"We find forecasts for an exponential expansion of the stablecoin universe rom $250 billion currently to $1 trillion-$2 trillion over the coming years as far too optimistic," writes the analyst.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar or price of gold.
Currently, stablecoins play a major role in crypto markets, providing a payment infrastructure and facilitating international money transfers.
According to JPMorgan, roughly 88% of stablecoin demand today comes from crypto-native activity, including trading, decentralized finance (%DeFi), collateral, and idle funds held by crypto firms, with payments accounting for only 6%.
Even under the most generous assumptions, the growth of stablecoin use in payments would only marginally increase the overall market's size, argues Panigirtzoglou.
JPMorgan also dismissed the likelihood of a large-scale shift from traditional bank deposits or money market funds to stablecoins, citing a lack of yield.
Ultimately, the bank sees modest crypto-driven growth as the most realistic path for stablecoins moving forward, not a mass adoption story as many crypto bulls claim.
JPMorgan Chase's outlook for stablecoins comes as the U.S. Congress is expected to pass stablecoin legislation in coming months.
British bank Standard Chartered (LON: STAN), which is notoriously bullish on crypto, has said that the legislation's passage could trigger a 10-fold jump in stablecoin supply.
Panigirtzoglou concluded that JPMorgan has a far less aggressive outlook for stablecoin growth in the coming years.
JPM stock is up 22% this year and trading at $292 U.S. per share.
COMTEX_466888388/2848/2025-07-03T10:50:51